During my recent tour of town hall meetings across the entire Senate District 28, many constituents had concerns and questions about Governor Doyle’s proposed state budget. I often referred to the Governor’s budget as a Thanksgiving turkey, meaning it could be November before the next biennial budget actually takes effect. The next state budget theoretically is supposed to become law July 1, 2007, the date the state begins its fiscal year of 2007-08.
What is making this budget proposal so problematic, jeopardizing its chances of being adopted on time, is the Governor’s insistence that taxes and fees be increased by $1.75-billion. That bombshell alone is a heart-stopper. Factor in the state is in deficit and the odds of a split Legislature coming to a budget agreement by July 1 are very slim.
If the state is without a new budget on July 1, it operates under the old budget until the 2007-09 budget is approved. Some administrators of programs anticipating increased state funding like schools and local governments would be very nervous about a budget delay.
I am not alone in my prediction the current budget deliberations will drag on for months. The highly-regarded Wisconsin Taxpayers Alliance (WTA) is also leery.
The WTA lists a number of reasons why the state budget is on a crash course. It compares this budget scenario to the budget process 10 years ago. In 1997, the Governor and the legislative leaders were of different parties. During the 1990’s, Governor Tommy Thompson bucked heads with Senate Majority Leader, Democrat Chuck Chvala. Ditto 2007. Governor Doyle has to deal with Assembly Speaker Mike Huebsch, Republican of West Salem.
The legislative parties of the 1990’s also had split control. While Chvala was leading the Senate, Republican Ben Brancel was the Assembly Speaker. Today Huebsch runs the Assembly while Democrat Judy Robson runs the Senate
Budgets in the 1990’s were enacted very late. The 1995 budget was enacted on December 20, the 1997 budget was enacted on October 13, and the 1999 budget was enacted on October 29. It appears a repeat is in the cards.
The WTA also points to slim margins in each legislative majority. Democrats control the Senate, 18-15. Republicans control the Assembly, 52-47. In one of its latest reports, the WTA writes, “With
few seats to spare, majority leadership needs caucus unity to establish party positions and eventually to pass a budget. But geographic and philosophical differences, not to mention personality conflicts, occur in both parties. By opposing their party’s positions or holding their caucus hostage to specific demands, a few dissidents within a majority can delay a budget or, if they choose, derail it.”
The Joint Finance Committee, the powerful committee that works on the state budget, has 16 members, 8 Republicans and 8 Democrats. That scenario results in many 8-8 tie votes, keeping the Governor’s budget unchanged.
Budgets approved by the Assembly and Senate will be so markedly different, that a conference committee composed of Senators and Assembly representatives will be formed to try to reconcile the budget bill. The conference committee is unlikely to agree on provisions unless it has assurances that the Governor will not use his powerful veto. That will certainly bottle up proceedings.
The elephant in the room will be the huge tax and fee increases Governor Doyle seeks. Unlike the late 1990’s, the state today does not enjoy strong revenue growth to play with. Gaining compromise was not easy then and it will not be easy now.
You can read the WTA’s report
here.The Green Bay Packers are scheduled to play in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day this year. The game will be over, and the state of Wisconsin may still be without a budget.
