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Curmudgeon's Corner

cur-mud-geon: anyone who hates hypocrisy and pretense and has the temerity to say so; anyone with the habit of pointing out unpleasant facts in an engaging and humorous manner

Primary Races Decided...

By Al Campbell
Wednesday, Sep 10 2008, 08:59 AM

Congressional 5th District...

Congressman Sensenbrenner (R) easily defeated challenger Burkee (R) by a vote of 47,157 (78%) to 13,083 (22%).  This race appeared to be quite competitive if all the pundits were to be believed.  Burkee started with a very conservative message that seemed to fade into a somewhat conservative message.  That very probably is what turned the tide.  That and the support of the Journal Sentinel and Shepherd Express for Burkee spelled the end to this challenge.

To be fair, Sensenbrenner was very engaged this time around given the perceived threat.  But, Burkee just couldn't mount a serious challenge in the final analysis.

Assembly District 24...

This was a wide open race with four Republicans and two Democrats in the fray.  Brady (D) waged a very quiet campaign with knocks on doors giving her exposure rather than advertisements.  Lauer (D) spent a good deal more money but apparently was done in by name recognition and maybe lack of a resonating message to inspire Democrat voters.

Three of the four Republicans seemed to be 'everywhere' with signage and mailers.  One of those, Melchert, easily buried the other two with his spending.  The fourth Republican barely showed his face.

It is interesting to look at the money spent in this primary race (based upon state filings with Dan Knodl's being incomplete and filed only through June 30th while the balance reflect filings as of September 8th) .  While one might expect the actual race to carry a big price tag, this seat is usually solid Republican.  Unless there is some kind of bombshell, this race is virtually a foregone conclusion.

  • Charlene Brady (D) spent $274.04, and won her race with 564 votes that cost her $0.49 each.
  • Torrey Lauer (D) spent $5,602.59, and lost his race with 386 votes that cost him $14.51 each.

 ~~~~~~

  • Dan Knodl (R) spent $17,072.32, won his race with 2,706 votes that cost him $6.31 each.
  • Jason LaSage (R) spent $5,921.18, came in second with 2,312 votes that cost him $2.56 each.
  • Randy Melchert (R) spent $33,754.76, came in third with 1,995 votes that cost him $16.92 each.
  • Michael Moscicke (R) spent $46.00, came in fourth with 215 votes that cost him $0.21 each.

What does all this mean?  That is difficult to fathom but here are some points:

    • Name recognition seems to carry significant weight with both current Washington County Supervisors carrying their respective races.
    • Money didn't make the biggest difference in the Republican race.  LaSage seemed to make more door-to-door visits than Melchert and spent 17.5% of what Melchert spent and garnered more votes.
    • A total of $62,670.89 was spent in the Assembly race for which 8,178 people turned out.  That seems to be a relatively low "return on investment".
    • Future contestants may well be dissuaded from running simply because they can't spend 'enough' money.
    • One candidate contributed $30,000 to his own campaign; that seems quite grandiose to me.
    • Finally, if the ultimate winner holds the Assembly seat for eight or ten terms, he or she will probably think the initial investment was quite reasonable.

Would term limits be something we should consider in state politics?  As was pointed out in a week-end newspaper article, term limits have certainly not held the state of Colorado back from growth, low taxes and good educational results. 

Comments

ozricale   

I'm all in favor of term limits. That is the reason I voted for Burkee. The "permanent political establishment" (as Sarah Palin called it) is part of the problem. A weak GOP field for Assembly, I voted LaSage. Knodl's education is an issue for me, plus his daughter is dating the biggest troublemaker in town, which calls his judgement into question, I think.

September 10, 2008 11:07 AM

Ann23   

Ozricale,

Does it really matter who Knodl's daughter is dating?  How would that affect his judgement or ability to lead?  

I know others in our fine village would agree - see Concerned GT Resident's earlier posting in regard to Sarah Palin's daughter:  

"You lefties are terrified of this woman, which I find simply hilarious.  How does the pregnancy of the child of a VP candidate have any impact on that candidate's ability to adequately perform the duties of the office they are seeking?"

September 10, 2008 1:46 PM

ozricale   

Ann23,

It matters to me because I know who he is. By the way, aren't you from Shorewood? Why would you leave your eastside liberal paradise for a suburban bastion of conservatism?

September 10, 2008 3:15 PM

ozricale   

ANN23,

It does to me because I know who he is.

September 10, 2008 3:17 PM

Ann23   

Ozricale,

I see, you made an exception.  Go figure!  You are making my "conservatives are being hyprocritical" argument very easy to prove.

Anyway, I did live in Shorewood but moved to Germantown recently.  I could be your next door neighbor for all you know, so there goes your "one size fits all" for liberals!  

September 10, 2008 3:29 PM

William Weaver   

Hi Al - I enjoyed this post.  I especially liked the votes received v. $ spent aspect.  Some excellent analysis here as well, IMO.

I do disagree with you on one analysis point though: "Future contestants may well be dissuaded from running simply because they can't spend 'enough' money'."  

IMO, your $ spent per vote analysis and "grassroots campaigning" observations, combined with the givens for this election: (a) candidates were running for an OPEN seat, not someone running against a long-term incumbent, and (b) the low, Low, LOW voter turnout expected (and actual turnout in retrospect) for this partisan primary, combined with (c) a Primary oppenent for an incumbent Congressman on only one side of the ballot ("cross-voting" a definite possibility) makes me think this race could have gone almost any which way on both sides of the aisle.

This combination of factors may not happen again for years in the 24th Assembly District, but if/when they do - who knows?

Regardless of the outcome in November, I expect a few of these candidates to be running again in 2010; either as a primary challenger or "across the aisle" from a 1-term incumbent.

Freedom of choice!

September 10, 2008 8:31 PM

ozricale   

ANN23,

I know all of my neighbors, we have block-parties and stuff. I don't think there is any similarity between Sarah Palin's daughter and Dan Knodl's. The young man I'm talking about has a lengthy court record of fairly serious offences. If she were my daughter I would forbid her from associating with him for her own safety.  

September 10, 2008 9:53 PM

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