A few short weeks ago, our governor mentioned that we would be contending with as much as a $3 billion budget shortfall in the next biennium.

A few days ago, that number was escalated to as much as $4 billion.  At that time, the governor was quoted as saying that he would do everything possible to avoid having to increase taxes.

Today, we appear to be staring a $5 billion budget shortfall in the eye, and, while he says he will do everything possible to avoid tax increases, there is some mention of income tax and sales tax.

I am reminded of that age old 'frog in the water' story.  We're the frog and the State of Wisconsin is the water and the elected masses will prove to be the hand that turns the heat up so that we boil under the strain of tax increases.

In the intervening few weeks, there has been no talk about how the budget can be cut to accomplish the magic 'balancing' act.  The state budget has been rigged for this failure for awhile.  Handy dandy accounting games have been used to continually push a significant shortfall into the next biennium in order to help "balance" the current biennium. 

That and the use of funds 'stolen' from every little rainy day money pot the governor could find have, to mix metaphors, kept the wolf from the door; but the 'big, bad wolf' has just huffed and puffed and the door is about to cave in on top of us taxpayers.

There is no other money available.  There are only budgetary cuts or tax and fee increases.  Guess which will be used to get the majority of the shortfall covered.  Oh, there will be some marginal cuts for our consumption but nothing even approaching what is required.

What will they cut?  Education?  Are you joking?  The new health care program they're trying to foist on us?  Are you joking?

I'm sorry to tell you that I think we all better buckle our chinstraps; we've a rough ride ahead and the Democrats are in control.  They haven't been too anxious to reduce spending as I recall.

Maybe I'll be surprised; I certainly hope so.  I'd love to take a bite of that crow!

News reports indicate that Village President Tom Kempinski is considering asking the Board to approve a referendum that would appear on either the September ballot or the November ballot.  This referendum would deal with just how Germantown voters desire to fund some $2,000,000 per year in road repairs, if they desire to do so.  The choices apparently would be borrowing, increasing property taxes or a combination of both or none.

The referendum could be advisory or binding in nature.  Obviously, if advisory, the Board would then decide what, if any action it would take, but it would do so with some idea of the public's mood.  If binding, the results would stand as the electorate decided at least until the Board was reconstituted or until the Board found some other approach to achieve the end if that were possible.

If property taxes were increased by $2,000,000 annually, the increase in village taxes over 2008 would be some 20.5% without consideration for any other line item increases in the village budget. It is unrealistic to assume that all other expenses will remain constant.  If the amount were to be borrowed, the debt service would be part of the tax increase each year so that both the amount spent each year plus interest would be added to the tax bills over a number of years.

The village's portion of our total tax bill in 2008 was 24.52%; that share would climb to 30.67% if all other taxing units remained at 2008 levels which, unfortunately, is very unlikely.  The actual increase in total property taxes due to the village's portion of the total could be something in the range of 1% to 2% I would suspect.

Use of a referendum will please some people and anger others.  Some will say that this gives the voter the direct voice on specific items that they otherwise lack in representative government.  Others will say the referendum gives the Board a place to hide; still others will say that there should be no referendum.

There are several questions that come to mind about which you may wish to make your views known:

1.  Do we need $2 million worth of road repair every year?  For how many years?

2.  What portion of the village's road surfaces need to be repaired today? 

3.  Have past Boards avoided their responsibilities and not funded road repairs properly?

4.  Is a referendum a good idea or is it a convenient tool for a Board that doesn't wish to stake out a position that may be very unpopular?

5.  If this referendum appears on the ballot, what impact will that have on any issue the School Board may advance at the same time?

6.  If we are to see a referendum, should it be simply an advisory referendum or should it bind the Board to a specific direction?

What think you G'town?

I received an email from a regular reader this morning asking me what my opinion was concerning the announcement that the elementary school bond issue will be back on the November ballot.  He forced me to give thought to something I had managed to push from my mind for about a week, but that hiatus is over.

First, let me say that I think the district has had a poor public relations week.  The announcement that the bond issue, apparently unchanged, is expected to be on the ballot in November was probably awkward enough.  Then, we learn of the expected budget deficit for the current year, and we learn that the proposed budget will require a property tax increase if approved as explained.

I've not engaged anyone from the district on the subject of the reappearance of the bond issue, and have had no contact regarding budget shortfalls.

There was some analysis done as the result of the spring election where the bond issue was defeated.  That apparently showed some interesting results when reviewed area by area.  Remember that the Germantown School District encompasses more than simply the Village of Germantown.  The most recent election apparently showed results indicating that some non-village areas were quite opposed while the village proper was more evenly split, or at least that is my recollection.

My supposition, and it is only that, is this:  November will see a significantly higher turn-out of voters.  The district may have reasoned that this will be a 'fairer' review of the proposal and it may have reasoned that the outlying non-village areas' votes might be outweighed by greater village turn-out, desiring to take its chances on that populations' decision this time around.

Beyond this, the budget deficit is understandable given the economic conditions we're experiencing.  Energy and food costs are up significantly and those are the primary areas identified as the 'culprits' in the budget shortfall.  The fact that preliminary budget numbers for the next period are reflecting the need for greater revenue is not surprising on its face.  The amount of the deficit and the amount of the need for the next period will be of more interest.  The tactics employed by the school board and the district administration in meeting these issues will be very informative.  We are in a superintendent 'lame duck' position and the new person selected will have had little, if any, substantial input by the time hiring decisions have been taken.

I must say that I'm disappointed with this confluence of events.  I don't know what, if any, press releases may have been issued on the bond issue decision.  If there were such releases, there is little indication of that fact since the news was simply dropped in our laps without forewarning or preparation for receipt of the news.  Then, to see the news about the current and prospective budgets pop up within days, citizens were subjected to what in our small world is tantamount to a 'media blitz'.

I fear that some significant damage has been done to the district's credibility on both issues whether or not deserved.  Those opposed to the bond issue have a ready-made counter offensive dropped into their laps.  Those who favored the bond issue have been embarrassed, self included.

All the old bromides about school boards being more interested in buildings than students, etc., etc. will be front and center during the election season.  And, frankly, the district has brought that unto itself whether through arrogance or ignorance or simple mishandling.

Am I the only person who is exasperated with our state and national political/tax scene?  I doubt that very much. 

As I watch the 'Amazing Obama' versus 'Deserving Hillary' race unfold, I see a real race as to which can promise greater tax increases/profit confiscation to the tune of TRILLIONS of dollars.  What is even more amazing to me is the blatant approach both are taking...coupled with the seeming lack of perception their two groups of supporters have of what they're getting into.  These two people are socialist/populists so far as I can see.  There is the inevitable class warfare coupled with promises that neither will ever be able to keep...thank goodness!  And, it seems, with every passing day, that Barack Obama will wrest this nomination away from Hillary Clinton unless the Clinton 'machine' is able to do him in...and that cannot be discounted.

Then, I read of our state's revenue collection shortfalls totaling something in the range of $650 Million by the middle of next year.  And, I hear the 'solutions' offered by Governor Doyle and by the Republicans.

On the one hand, we are collecting $650 Million less than projected due to an economic downturn.  That economic downturn is, in large part, caused by heavy taxation in our state.  We have all learned, if we'll admit it to ourselves, that lower tax rates increase revenue collections since they stimulate the economy.  Let us keep more of what we earn, and we'll find ways to earn even more than we were before, and tax collections increase.

Governor Doyle would combine his already once-defeated tax on hospitals (which will exacerbate the health care cost crisis), and delay some of the tax decreases that were part of the so-called 'bipartisan' budget passed just a few short months ago.  In essence, his solution is to raise taxes to get us out of our economic slump.

Fortunately, the Republicans are, so far at least, saying there can be no new taxes and there must be spending reductions instead.  Sen. Alberta Darling is releasing today her "Stay In Wisconsin" program.  That program represents her agenda aimed at keeping seniors, students and working families in Wisconsin.  We talked just days ago about Wisconsin's outflow of population.  Her package of proposals would eliminate the Estate Tax, increase the Property Tax Credit for seniors, eliminate tax on Social Security income, increase Tax Exemption limits, make Student Loan interest fully deductible, along with a few other things including evidenced-based health care reform. 

Probably the biggest boost would come from what Sen. Darling calls 'Invest Wisconsin 2.0'.  That includes the following:

• a 1% across the board income tax cut for all Wisconsin taxpayers
• Capital Gains reinvestment
• Angel Investment tax credit
• Education tax credit
• Green Data Center tax credit
• NanoSTEM research initiative
• Nanotechnology tax credit
• Product liability reform
• Expert Witness reform
• Jobs Preservation

The Governor seems intent on raising taxes to increase revenue while many Republicans are pointing in the direction of economic stimulation as the solution. 

I don't know about you, but I am just about at my tax paying limit.  I'd much rather help pay for a new elementary school in Germantown than add more money to the state's tax collection coffers.  The return on investment seems much better if we invest locally while our state stimulates the economy instead of increase taxes.

By the way, the idea of reducing expenditures when income lags is something that just about everyone of us has had to to do at one time or another.  Isn't it the state's turn to practice that simple budget technique for awhile?

Maybe bold is a bit overdramatic; these things are almost certainly going to occur during the next twelve months...and probably during the next twelve months after that.

HEALTHCARE COSTS CONTINUE TO RISE...Of course that will happen as it has been happening for a long, long time now. 

We'll know what our healthcare delivery landscape will look like as we move through 2008.  We will be in the process of building too many facilities and that will ultimately drive costs up at an even greater pace.  We'll see the consolidation wave cresting and then we'll effectively have a couple of behemoths.  And that will ultimately drive health care costs up at an even greater pace.  We'll have continuing debate over the governmental control of our healthcare; and that holds within it forebodings for us all if we take the seemingly 'easy' pathway to universal coverage.  Government will continue to blame health insurance companies while it meddles in the free marketplace to the detriment of us all.  Will we be able to work our way through this coming year in healthcare?

TAXES WILL CONTINUE INCREASING...Again, of course this will happen as surely as the sun rises in the morning.

Our governmental bodies from village to state to federal continue to spend at a pace that simply cannot be sustained without damaging the economy.  Programs once instituted never die.  If funding channels go away (read cigarette taxes), the programs are simply shifted to using 'general purpose funds'.  And, as if the idea of never killing off useless tax-funded programs isn't bad enough by itself, our various government bodies add new tax-funded programs willy-nilly.  Our state budget just approved carries with it unfunded future obligations of something in the range of a billion dollars for the next biennium.  Our federal budget carries within it the same type of mischief.  Our politicos are absolutely addicted to 'earmarks' and those infect state budgets as well as federal budgets.

EDUCATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEBATED...And this, too, is a virtual given.

The primary state teacher's union, WEAC, has still not extracted its payback for the massive support provided to the Governor and many elected representatives.  Look for the QEO provision to be attacked and possibly thrown out if Democrats gain control of the Assembly in addition to the Senate and Governor's mansion.  Milwaukee's system will continue to move in precisely the wrong direction so far as numbers of graduates, test scores and almost every other measurable area.  Germantown's petition to move from MATC to another technical college district will be heard by the state technical college board, and only a miracle will see that petition granted.  We will have been accorded our 'due process' but come to realize that appointed boards do not provide 'due process'.  Virtual schooling will continue to be assailed by the teachers' unions...even though union member teachers are employed in those programs.  Why you ask?  Competition seems to be a great idea in everything but education, where the establishment simply cannot tolerate the possibility that we'll come to realize the king has no clothes.  There will be more referenda, and those that are properly presented will be voted on their merits from the electorates' perspective.  'Properly presented' means that the referenda are scheduled during an existing election, and not on some obscure date calculated to bring out only the 'right' voters.  'Properly presented' means that teachers and administrators are not employing taxpayer money to make their case, and that all the facts are presented well in advance to permit reasoned public debate.

ELECTIONS WILL DETERMINE THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE...And that is truly the hallmark of our country.

Our state government will be re-shaped and a Democrat sweep, should that occur, will virtually assure the we'll have universal health care called 'Healthy Wisconsin Two', higher taxes across the board, and fewer freedoms as government sucks up more of the available air.  We'll have more tax and spend programs that will take on lives of their own, and conservatives will trudge through the political wilderness for another decade or two.  Our Governor, who promised this would be his last term, has apparently decided that we need him for another term of four years.  Of course we expected that since other promises like 'no tax increases' have been conveniently forgotten, as well.

The federal scene holds a similar scenario.  People will need to evolve beyond the still-controversial 'hanging chad' feelings.  There was no Supreme Court fiat involved in the Florida race; that was a contrived attempt by the loser to fan the flames and get into office because he 'deserved it'.  So, he then went on to exploit the 'global warming' thing instead, while emitting more pollution that a thousand or more normal folks.  We'll have a new President-Elect by year-end.  The Iraq war seems to be less and less an issue as the press finally tells a more positive story...that has been going on for much longer than has been told.  The attempt to convince people that we're in a recession seems to be failing, but Congress still tries to make that happen with tax legislation.  For the first time since 1952, we have a wide-open race on both sides of the aisle.  What will happen if a strong third party candidate 'suddenly' emerges...like the 'sudden' emergence of Mayor Bloomberg of New York (as has been rumored for months now)?  That will throw everything into the proverbial 'cocked hat' on both the Democrat and Republican sides.  Yet another reason why congressional seats are so important.

2008 promises to be a very exciting and rewarding year, just as all the other years I remember have held great promise coupled with the aura of excitement...if we can but sieze those opportunities.

May you and yours enjoy a most healthy, happy and prosperous 2008...no matter your politics!