Obama Smoking 'Issue'...

I continue to see little references to the fact that President-Elect Barack Obama has the occasional cigarette, and musings about whether or not he will or even should quit that nasty habit.  (I can say that because I did smoke cigarettes... a lot...and quit many years ago.)

I am amused that these musings probably come from people who were and are adamantly opposed to smoking but who are now being 'forced' to make excuses for the person they favored in the recent election.  Some of the musings have been nothing short of farcical including the comments that he might well make better decisions if he can smoke a cigarette while pondering the weighty issues of the office he occupies come January 20th.

Will this slow the inexorable tide to rid our nation of any and all cigarettes and all other tobacco products, to close any business that has the audacity to think it is a private entity entitled to make decisions as to the customers it will serve, to outlaw all public use of a lawful agricultural product?  I suspect not.

Does anyone detect any hypocrisy?  Does it matter to anyone?  Is this the sound of one hand clapping? 

~~~

More Scientists Join Global Warming Dissenters...

Dr. Will Happer, award winning Princeton University Physicist says, "I am convinced that the current alarm over carbon dioxide is mistaken."  Happer, who was fired by former Vice President Al Gore in 1993, said of that incident, "I was told that science was not going to intrude on policy."

Additional dissenting scientists include:

• Dr. W.M. Schaffer, Ph.D. who is Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Arizona - Tucson.
• CNN Meteorologist Chad Meyers, a meteorologist for 22 years and certified by the American Meteorological Society.
• Engineer and Physicist J.K. "Jim" August, formerly of the U.S.Navy nuclear power program and former chair of professional standard committees in both the American Nuclear Society and the American Society of Mechanical Engineering.
• Biologist and Neuropharmacologist Dr. Doug Pettibone who has authored 120 scientific publications and holds ten patents and is a past member of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
• Meteorologist Tom Wysmuller, former weather forecaster at Amsterdam's Royal Dutch Weather Bureau.
• MIT Scientist Dr. Robert Rose, a professor of Materials Science and Engineering at MIT with approximately fifty years of teaching experience.
• Climate researcher Dr. Craig Loehle with the National Council for Air and Stream Improvements and who has published more than 100 peer-reviewed scientific papers.
• German Meteorologist Dr. Gerd-Rainer Weber, a Consulting Meteorologist.
• Atmospheric Scientist Robert L. Scotto, who has more than 30 years air quality consulting experience and a past member of the American Meteorological Society.
• Atmospheric Scientist Timothy R. Minnich who has more than thirty years experience in the design and management of a wide range of air quality investigations for industry and government.

The story line of a "consensus agreement" is simply not true as we have come to understand with the more than 650 dissenters who have now made themselves and their views known.  Those who are pushing for rapid adoption of the so-called "consensus" are doing so for fear they are being disproved more with every passing day.  They cannot afford to answer the criticisms since they're hypothesis is riddled with error.

Is there any real need to rush to judgment?  Or is this more a contrived need with those pushing the global warming issue recognizing that once unleashed, the movement will go on and on and on regardless of the validity of the movement.  These things take on a life of their own as we have seen in any number of previous government-backed programs, without regard for facts.

This debate is far too important and far too costly for us to make an incorrect judgment.  We will literally ruin the economy of the United States if this is permitted to take root, and we're already sliding down a very slippery slope created by other government meddling where well enough should've been left to be.

The use of the term "debate" is really a reach since there has been only a one-sided diatribe to date; there has been no true debate. 

There is debate over whether or not the "trickle-down" theory of economics functions as advertised.  I have a friend whom we'll refer to as John Jones for the purposes of this Blog since he prefers to remain anonymous.  He feels that he can attest to the fact that "trickle-down" is alive and well.

John Jones is a small business owner.  He is a professional and sells his services to clients.  That process often finds him traveling and sometimes traveling for several weeks at a time.  This creates, as you can imagine, some pretty hefty travel bills by the time flights, hotels and meals are all totaled up.

John has been a user of his American Express card in good standing for many years, and has had no need for a second card.  The typical AMEX card, as you may know, is not really a credit card in that it requires full payment by the due date that shows on each and every billing statement.  American Express is known to not be very understanding when one misses that due date, so John Jones has been quite meticulous about being sure his payment has been made on a timely basis.  John's card was set at a maximum amount of $10,000 and that had worked well for John over the many years he has been using it.

John tried to use his AMEX card a few weeks ago and was shocked to learn that his card was declined.  Fortunately, this usage occurred at a gas station and he had sufficient cash to pay for the gasoline.  When he called the American Express customer service group, he indicated that his card was well within the limits set by AMEX and that he was within the time period (set by them) for his payment to have been made.

He was even more shocked to learn that his $10,000 card limit had been arbitrarily lowered to $2,000.  He hadn't been notified of this and told them so.  They said that their company policy recently (apparently for about a year) has been to review all accounts and to re-establish credit limits based on the analysis of patterns of use.  Since his card had typically not been at the amount he was carrying at the time, they had decided he didn't need the $10,000 limit, so they thought they'd lower it.  In effect, AMEX was trying to protect itself since it's customers have been getting slower at paying as the economy sours, and AMEX was simply cutting future losses by limiting card exposure one customer at a time.

As stated earlier, John Jones is a small business person and isn't made of money.  He is accustomed to paying his bills and most of his clients are accustomed to paying their bills.  But, they take the full 30 days and sometimes a little more.  As the economy tightens, they are likely to take 45 days or maybe even 60 days.  Some may falter and have to go through the process of bankruptcy.

So, John is now faced with having to make some decisions.  He may need more capital put into his company.  He may need to tighten his credit terms.  He may need to insist on prepayment of some engagements if those are going to be extensive and sure to cost much more than the $2,000 limit, etc. 

John's clients may tell him that they'll find another professional with similar credentials to handle their business.  They may simply use his services much less than today.  This is representative of the "trickle-down" theory of economics, and it really has an impact on each of us whether or not we recognize that. 

We're not crying huge tears for John.  He's a big boy and he knows how the world works.  But, I thought it very interesting to hypothesize about what I would've felt in a similar situation.  What would happen if you or I were traveling on an extended trip only to learn that we can't get a hotel room in New York or Los Angeles or where ever?  Remember that hotels reserve a portion of your credit line for the costs they expect you might run up when you check in or even when you make your reservation, if in the near-term.  What would have happened if a large meal for several members of the client firm had been consumed and then you learned you couldn't cover the cost?  How embarrassing!  And, would that client have remained a client?

I'll be sure to review my credit limit on each monthly AMEX bill since I'm also a user.  I'll try to be sure I have some other alternative 'plastic' just in case.  And I'll continue to try to pay my bills on a timely basis even as the economy softens.

And, I'll continue to be a firm believer in "trickle-down" economics...at least on the ill effects of "trickle-down" economics.

The Journal Sentinel released its report for the latest period and the news was a continuation of the trend that has been apparent for many newspapers nationwide.

The Sunday edition dropped 3.8% and the weekday edition dropped 3.9%.  My family has become one of those that dropped the weekday edition at our renewal a week or so ago.  I now find my daily news using JSOnline during the day and settle in with a lap full of newspaper on Sundays.  I have had the tactile sensation of a newspaper in my hands for nearly so long as I can remember, and I confess that I miss that experience.  As stated in a much earlier Blog, I delivered the La Crosse Tribune for several years while growing up near that city so I'm accustomed to having smudged fingertips from the newsprint.

I was frankly surprised during a recent meeting of Bloggers when I asked the group nearest me about their subscriptions.  I was in the minority since most had already dropped their print editions.

The newest iteration of JSOnline is improved and more easily navigable from my perspective.  I suspect that more and more people will make the decision to discontinue their daily print edition.  The users of JSOnline continue to increase and the new version should assist that migration...if that is desired by the Journal Sentinel organization.  They find themselves in a bit of a fix.  On the one hand, they want to be in a leadership position as the shift continues.  On the other hand, they need to find ways to boost their revenue stream to offset the loss of subscription money and advertising dollars, and the advertising doesn't seem to have kept pace with the shift from print to electronic media.  Part of that is obviously about the economy, but to what effect may be hard to measure.  If GM and Ford and Chrysler continue to become shadows of themselves, and if their major dealers either go out of business or downsize, advertising dollars will get more and more scarce.

I believe that much of this movement has been driven by the rising prices caused in large part by the price of oil and all things related.  Newsprint is among the real cost increase issues for publishers.  That goes away when printed newspapers are no longer printed.  The leap from the historic "paper", though, is not assured to be successful; we see the struggles of the majority of publishers across our nation.  Those that have significantly diversified, as has the Journal Sentinel organization, should have a better outlook as this migration continues, but nothing is certain in today's economy.

People costs are also a significant factor and we've seen the staff cuts that have been made a couple of times so far.  I suspect there is little if any fat left, so that future cuts will be felt in the overall quality of the effort.  There are those who would claim that is already an issue and that this may be hastening the outflow of subscribers.

Milwaukee is by no means an isolated phenomenon in this regard.  The New York Times and the Los Angeles Times both saw continuing declines.  The old stalwart "Christian Science Monitor" has just announced that it is going to end publishing a print paper by next April.  There will be many more casualties before this storm has calmed.

I received an e-mail containing the following quotations and thought it simply had to be in front of as many readers as possible as we approach perhaps the most important election in my lifetime.  Much food for thought follows:

• Suppose you were an idiot.  And suppose you were a member of Congress, but then I repeat myself.---Mark Twain
• I contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle.---Winston Churchill
• A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul.---George Bernard Shaw
• Democracy must be something more than two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner.---James Bovard, Civil Libertarian (1994)
• Foreign aid must be defined as a transfer of money from poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries.---Douglas Casey, classmate of Bill Clinton at Georgetown
• Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys.---P.J. O'Rourke, Civil Libertarian
• Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else.---Frederic Bastiat, French Economist (1801-1850)
• Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it.  If it keeps moving, regulate it.  And, if it stops moving, subsidize it.---Ronald Reagan (1986)
• I don't make jokes.  I just watch the government and report the facts!---Will Rogers, Humorist (1879-1935)
• If you think health care is expensive now, wait until you see what it costs when it is free.---P.J. O'Rourke
• In general, the art of government consists of taking as much money as possible from one party of the citizens to give to the other.---Voltaire (1764)
• The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of the blessings.  The inherent blessing of socialism is the equal sharing of misery.---Winston Churchill (1874-1965)
• What this country needs are more unemployed politicians.---Edward Langley, Artist (1928-1995)
• A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have.---Thomas Jefferson, Virginia Patriot (1743-1826)

 Some things, it seems, never change.

The following words are variously attributed to both Abraham Lincoln and to Rev. Wm. J.H. Boetcker (circa 1916).  Without debating from whom they flowed, I thought it very important that these be shared during this particularly important election season.

You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich.

You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.

You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift.

You cannot lift the wage earner up by pulling the wage payer down.

You cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting class hatred.

You cannot build character and courage by taking away men's initiative and independence.

You cannot help men permanently by doing for them what they could, and should, do for themselves.

Powerful words and powerful thoughts, indeed!

As we watch the Summer Olympics, we see the pageantry and the heroics of the athletes from around the world. 

We don't see the oppression that has persisted for centuries in China and that continues to persist under the very noses of those who are walking the streets of Beijing.

TV cameras and microphones have been installed in all the taxi cabs and are remote controlled by the authorities to be sure that no one says or does something threatening to the regime.  130,000 police and soldiers are present ostensibly to protect the attendees.  They also help assure that the opposition will be suppressed during the games.

300,000 Chinese citizens augment the 130,000 people mentioned above as additional eyes and ears.  Reporters are subject to censorship.  Passports are summarily pulled from some reporters who have sought to broadcast by telephone back to their home countries.  That is a subtle form of reminder that the regime is in complete control and that one shouldn't forget it.

Against this backdrop, the President stood aligned with Chinese protestants this morning to deliver a few words of support.  We don't know what kind of persecution will follow when the reporters and TV crews leave, but we can remember the Tienanmen Square episode of a few years ago and draw upon those scenes of brutality to get some idea.

China is China.  Nothing more and nothing less.  It owns a big chunk of America.  It spies on us every day.  It works to find weaponry that can be used against us.  It still wishes to defeat us; if not on an actual battlefield, then in commerce.  We seem to forget these things, but they are critical.

If you were prescient and stocked up on the Forever Stamp while it was still available at $0.41, you may be able to say "Gotcha!"

A small news item caught my eye this morning.  The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) posted a loss of $1,100,000,000 for the quarter ended June 30th.  Yes, that is $1.1 Billion that was lost by the USPS, now a private organization.

The reasons cited were reduced mail volume (blamed on the slowing economy) and rapidly rising transport costs.

We can all understand that the cost of fuels that go into delivery have gone through the roof.  Everything delivered costs more, or soon will.  And, the economy has slowed.  Given the apparent political stalemate on drilling for oil here and now, fuel costs will likely do nothing but continue to increase.  Your Forever Stamps may prove to have been a really good investment since postage costs will almost certainly have to rise for us consumers.

I wonder, however, if there may be something more at work here.  Is it possible that we are watching the initial death throes of snail mail as we have known it for our lifetimes?  We know that more of us are computer literate today than ten years ago.  I think we would agree that use of computers and other communications devices will continue to accelerate.

Between telephones and other electronic communication media, and with delivery services available that have already taken most of the parcel post market, are we in the process of ending the use of delivered items that we walk to a mailbox to retrieve?  Simply look at the state of newspapers in our country today to get some idea of the potential impact.

Will there continue to be a USPS ten years from now?   Twenty?

If so, what will it look like and what will it do?  What will happen to all the brick and mortar that carries the USPS logo?  What happens to the tens of thousands of employees?

Could this really happen?   Did anyone ever ask that about horses and buggies?  Did anyone ever foresee air travel in the 1850s?  Did anyone ever foresee space travel in the 1930s?

It is expected that Corsair Capital, a New York based private equity group will sign a deal with National City today that will affect Germantown.  You've guessed by now, if you're a regular reader, that the effect is to keep our newest bank name, National City Bank, in Germantown, at least for the foreseeable future.  Corsair and some other individual investors will put around $6 billion into National City at a share price of some $5.00.

We earlier traced the evolution from St. Francis Bank to Mid America Bank to National City Bank in the first Blog that discussed the plight of National City.  It's shares closed at $8.33 on Friday and that marked a 52 week decline in value of 78%.

So, it appears that my friendly, efficient bankers in Germantown will continue to be there when I need them.  I'm happy for them and for me and the rest of their customers.  Changing banks is a nuisance.  If there are direct deposits, those must be changed.  If there are automatic withdrawls, those must be changed.  New checks and bank cards must be obtained, and decisions as to which of the numerous accounts offered is the right account need to be made.  If Internet banking is involved, there is another level of change, and if telephone banking is involved, yet another level.

We sometimes are oblivious to the things that happen on Wall Street and the world but many of those distant happenings directly involve us in one or another ways.  This whole subject has been one that most of us has not followed...and yet it has an impact on our nice little village.  Our economy has truly become a global economy whether for the better or not.  IBM sold its laptop computer business to a company in China.  The Jaguar and Range Rover nameplates are now owned by a company in India.  GM is building a new engine plant in Brazil.  Medical x-rays are read off shore.  When the Far East markets hiccup, Wall Street flinches.  The demand for gasoline and diesel fuel in India and China have thrown our prices into a seemingly unending upward spiral.

Perhaps more important, these changes have occurred in a relatively short span of time..in decades rather than centuries.

Earmarks...

The Republicans are fighting amongst themselves over whether or not to try to control their budget 'earmarks', and if so, how to proceed.  The party's elected members met over the week-end and failed to take any real steps to end earmarks.  The President is expected to address earmarks in his State of the Union address this evening.  It is reported that he will tell Congress that he'll veto any appropriation bills for 2009 that have greater than 50% as much in the way of earmarks as the same bill in 2008 carried.

That is a start, but until we have convinced our elected officials that they are spending our money and not their money, we will make little if any real progress.

And, this may well be the only true bipartisan area we have.  It is an affliction of both major parties as well as the small group calling themselves independents.

Limits On The WCCA...

WCCA stands for Wisconsin Consolidated Court Automation and it has a website that you can access here.

This site permits any citizen to locate information about court decisions, charges filed, cases scheduled and so on by county.  If you have an interest in where the case involving John and Jane Doe stands, you would access the site, pick the county (if you know it) and key in one of the names.  You'll then see the actions that have been taken, dismissals if that is the case, etc.

For some strange reason there have been two recent attempts to limit public access.  Last summer, two Democrats (Schneider of Wisconsin Rapids and Kessler of Milwaukee) mounted such an effort.  They would've permitted access only for court officials, law enforcement personnel, attorneys and journalists.  Now Rep. Vos (R-Racine) and Sen. Lassa (D-Stevens Point) want to limit access by removing certain cases from this site.  Those cases or charges would include a civil forfeiture or misdemeanor within 90 days after dismissal, a finding of not guilty or if the case has been overturned on appeal and then dismissed.  Felonies would carry the same requirement except the time frame would be extended to 120 days.

Both of these efforts are misguided at best and an assault on our rights at worst.  Wouldn't the accused rather have the information there for all to see if he or she had been absolved or if the case had been dismissed.  Why would we be concerned about those convicted? 

An example of the significance can be found in articles now running in the Journal Sentinel concerning physicians who have been involved in numerous complaints alledging malpractice over the course of time.  Many of those records would become unavailable under these efforts to wipe the slate clean.  This is not only an assault on our rights but it is also potentially going to endanger lives.

Anti-Gun Proposals...

Many in the group that would outlaw ownership of guns, or the group that wants to ban the carrying of guns (that is legal in 47 other states) would have us believe that their solution is the answer.

Here are some snippets that seem to point in the other direction:

• New Jersey adopted a very strict gun law in 1966 and by 1968 the murder rate was up 46% and the robbery rate was up nearly 100%.
• Hawaii adopted a series of anti-gun laws and its murder rate tripled over the next ten years.
• Washington, D.C. imposed strict gun control laws in 1976; its murder rate has grown by 134% since.
• England banned handgun ownership in 1997, and the number of citizens injured by firearms has more than doubled since.
• Prior to these actions, the statistics cited had been falling.

When guns are banned, only the bad guys have guns.  In states where concealed carry laws are in place, the bad guys really have to think hard about trying anything.

Miller Executive Dies In Walkers Point Shooting...

The Director of Compensation and Benefits for Miller Brewing was killed at about 1:10AM on Sunday morning after leaving a bar in Walkers Point.  He was accosted by a robber, gave the person his wallet and was then shot to death as he sat in his auto.

The concern immediately arose over whether Milwaukee would suffer as the result of this in the process that is now ongoing as to where the headquarters of the new combined Miller Coors will be located.  It is reported that crime and homicide rates rank first in the equation that most corporations use to determine quality of life rankings.  The Journal Sentinel reported this morning, and I paraphrase, that Milwaukee is 2.3% larger in population than Denver, has 228% more violent crime including 263% more homicides.  This is extrapolated from the FBI's statistics for the first half of 2007 that were recently released.

Would you think about that if you were making the decision?  Would you add in the fact that MPS is graduating 50% or fewer of all students that start as freshmen?