The Jeremiah Wright debacle has had a huge impact on the primary campaign, to the detriment of Barack Obama. Real Clear Politics looks at the damage done so far, although the polling was prior to Obama’s speech in defense of his relationship with Rev. Wright. The results may give Hillary Clinton something to use as ammunition for her argument to super delegates:
Ohio: For Obama, it’s a 17-point swing against him since the last SurveyUSA poll taken just three weeks ago, going up from up ten on McCain to down seven. Clinton has slipped four points over the same period but still leads McCain by six.
Missouri: Obama’s support dropped three points in Missouri while McCain’s rose five, giving McCain a substantial 14-point lead. Over the same period Clinton picked up four points on McCain according to the SUSA survey.
Kentucky: McCain’s support jumped 10 points and Obama’s dropped five in three weeks. Clinton’s support remained steady, though she trails McCain by 10.
Both McCain and Clinton have gained in the same period in which Obama dropped in these key states. Ohio’s results will make the strongest argument for Clinton.
These polls will set the question up for the super delegates. The next round of polling will show whether they need to make a decision to drop Obama on an electability argument. If the polling continues to slide for Obama in Ohio and Missouri, and if McCain continues to do well in Michigan and Pennsylvania, the Democrats can't afford to nominate Obama. That is the purpose of the super delegates.
There are rumors of Gore stepping back into the race if things get worse for Obama.
