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In the Race

Now, here, you see, it takes all the blogging I can do to keep in the same place.
If I want to get somewhere else, I must blog twice as fast as that!
You see, I'm in the Red Queen's Race...

A Change In The Wind For Al Qaeda

By Janet Evans
Wednesday, Aug 13 2008, 11:50 AM



There has been a change noticed regarding the attitude of al Qaeda over the past year.

It is a subtle change.

They have been noticed to be in a more defensive mode in their communications.

The questions is, does this mean anything in the long run?

It does appear to be a positive sign.

But what next?

We will have to see what happens during the next presidency, also.

Will al Qaeda test the waters?

Only time will tell...

“A senior Bush administration counterterrorism official said Tuesday that an analysis of public statements by al Qaeda in the past year shows that nearly half the verbiage is devoted to justifying the group's legitimacy.


The terrorist group seems to be adopting a more defensive tone in its public pronouncements, indicating that its leaders may be concerned that criticism from former allies and the increasing civilian death toll from attacks are undermining support. Al Qaeda senior leaders this year "have devoted nearly half their airtime to defending the group's legitimacy," said senior U.S. intelligence official Ted Gistaro.

 "This defensive tone continues a trend observed since at least last summer and reflects concern over allegations by militant leaders and religious scholars that al Qaeda and its affiliates have violated the Islamic laws of war, particularly in Iraq and North Africa."
 

[...]

Sheik al-Oadah was one of the first religious leaders to preach against the presence of U.S. forces in the desert kingdom back in the early 1990s and was an early inspiration for al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. In an open letter to bin Laden last September, the cleric accused him of having the blood on his hands of "at least hundreds of thousands of innocent people, if not millions."

"Are you happy to meet Allah with this heavy burden on your shoulders?" he said. In a lengthy treatise faxed to Arab media outlets from an Egyptian jail earlier last year, Dr. Fadl wrote: "We are prohibited from committing aggression, even if the enemies of Islam do that."

Al Qaeda leaders, and in particular the group's second in command, Ayman al-Zawahri, have addressed these criticisms in several ways, analysts said.

"Do they now have fax machines in Egyptian jail cells?" al-Zawahri asked in an al Qaeda video message after Dr. Fadl's fax appeared. "I wonder if they're connected to the same line as the electric-shock machines."

Lawrence Wright, author and longtime specialist on al Qaeda, speculated earlier this year that "this sarcastic dismissal was perhaps intended to dampen anxiety about Fadl's manifesto ... among al Qaeda insiders."

But, according to the Jamestown Foundation, al-Zawahri also sought to deal substantively with Dr. Fadl's detailed critique, publishing a 188-page rebuttal of his thesis in March this year.

The rebuttal was "comprehensive," wrote Jamestown analyst Abdul Hameed Bakier, "using religious arguments and logic to refute and highlight weaknesses in the document.

"On the other hand," he continued, "the lengthy response demonstrates that al Qaeda is seriously alarmed by the possible negative consequences the document might inflict on their ideology and the jihadi movement."  

Read the complete article from the Washington Times


HERE








 

Comments

J. Strupp   

The change is not so subtle.

Fadl's critizism of how Al Qaeda conducts it's business might be the singe worst blow to the the organization's capabiliy to recruit and survive in it's current form.  Dr. Fadl, Zawahri's mentor, is an Egyptian most known for creating a jihad group that morphed into al Qaeda (also known for being involved in the assassination of Egyptian leader Sadat in 1981).  Fadl, like al Zawahri, was a surgeon and operated on Osama Bin Laden when he was injured in an assassination attempt in Sudan.  I mention this because Dr. Fadl's reputation among al Qaeda's leadership has been unblemished (until recently) and Fadl has been considered sort of a "godfather" of sorts to the current al Qaeda leadership.  Fadl recently wrote a book in which he wrote, amongst other things, that Al Qaeda's bombings in Egypt and Saudi Arabia were illegitimate and that terrorism against civilians in Western countries was wrong.  Fadl's book has almost single-handedly turned al Qaeda supporters against al-Zawahri and al Qaeda. Dr. Fadl's book is clearly the ultimate "knife in the back" to al-Zawahri and Zawahri has done everything in his power to try and turn the tables on Fadl's accusations.

It appears that al Qaeda, as we know it, is being torn apart from the inside out and the words of former jihadists like Fadl have been more influential in bringing down the most dangerous terrorist organization on earth than any western army could have dreamed.  

August 13, 2008 1:58 PM

Janet Evans   

Josh,

I stand corrected on the term, "subtle."

Can you imagine (I'm sure you can, Josh) what would happen if the War on Terror could totally be fought like this...as if it were chess..an outwit,outsmart?  Not a game, per se, but strategy of words and mass communication, a voice of reason, to tame the beast of terrorism?

Maybe that's what it will take.  Maybe that is what is a form of music..as in "music tames the savage beast"...and terrorists are animals.

August 13, 2008 4:53 PM

J. Strupp   

I can.  

But the voice of reason will have to come from the Islamic community (something that's beginning to occur more frequently). THIS is the only way Islamic terrorist organizations like al Qaeda will be defeated.  If the Islamic community can refute the teachings and beliefs of extremists, therefor putting a strangle-hold on new recruits, these organizations will collapse from within.  

August 14, 2008 5:22 PM

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