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Practically Speaking

Kyle and her husband moved to Brookfield in 1986. She became active in local politics and started blogging in 2004. Her focus is primarily on local issues but often includes state and national topics, too. Kyle looks at things from the taxpayers’ perspective in a creative, yet down to earth way, addressing them from a practical point of view.

The silver lining is...oil prices fell 40% since July

By Kyle Prast
Monday, Oct 6 2008, 09:52 AM

Boy, that bailout bill really helped, didn't it? The Dow is now below 10,000 at the time of this writing. The rest of the world isn't faring much better.

But don't they say that every cloud has a silver lining, or it is an ill wind that blows no good?

Well, falling oil prices would be the little ray of sunshine in our black cloud of falling stocks.

Oil prices fall below $90 amid financial crisis worries

Oil prices briefly fell to an eight-month low below $90 a barrel Monday on speculation that the spreading financial crisis will exacerbate a global economic slowdown and cut demand for crude oil.

Significant gains by the U.S. dollar against the euro also contributed to slumping oil prices.

By midafternoon in Europe, light, sweet crude for November delivery was down $2.68 to $91.20 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier in the session, the price fell as low as $88.89 a barrel.

Oil prices have tumbled nearly 40% since peaking in July. The Nymex front-month contract last traded this low in early February.

At least lower oil prices will help Americans with heating costs* and filling their gas tanks. That is the only good thing I can say about the falling markets right now.

But, since we are so dependent on middle east oil, don't expect this downward trend to continue back to "good ole days" prices. After all, they do control the supply side of supply and demand. More from USAToday,

Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hossien Nozari said Saturday that it would be "unsuitable" for both producers and consumers for oil to dip below $100 a barrel. He called on fellow OPEC members not to pump too much oil and avoid a drop in prices.

"OPEC has signaled it may defend $80," Shum said. "There's uncertainty over what OPEC may do."

Need another reason to drill domestically and adopt an "All of the Above"** energy policy? Our economy would not be in the mess it is right now if we had adopted it years ago.

*Most will not benefit this winter from falling oil prices when it comes to heating. JSOnline: Government warns of sharp increase in winter heating costs, especially for homes using oil 

**I do not favor all of the All of the Above. So far, solar, wind, and ethanol are just too expensive and inefficient to be practical. 

Please, comment content should relate to the subject of the post. Although I try to respond to many, do not interpret my lack of a response as agreement.

Links: 

 

counter hit xanga

Brookfield7, Fairly Conservative, Betterbrookfield, Jay Weber, Mark Levin,  Vicki Mckenna 

Comments

Larry Knetzger   

Hi Kyle, While we watch the stock market crash, the dollar rises to a 13month high, just a really adverse relationship of value. Really hard to comprehend. More buying opportunities but when to pull the trigger is the hard part.

Kyle's reply: I hope the Fed does not lower interest rates more! 

October 6, 2008 12:45 PM

winegirl   

It appears falling oil prices won't help homeowners this winter, according to the news article published today in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The utility companies purchased their supplies for this winter months ago.

"Homeowners in the Midwest can expect winter heating costs to rise by about 17% this winter, the federal Energy Information Administration said this morning.

That would translate to an increase for the average household of about $170 a month during the six-month heating season, the agency said.

Households that rely on propane can expect increases of 10% and those that use heating oil can expect an increase of about 12%.

If the forecast holds, this will be the most expensive winter heating season on record, no matter which fuel homeowners use to heat their homes.

The winter heating outlook being released today is based on the agency's latest assessment of energy prices and a long-term weather forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that calls for warmer than normal temperatures across the Midwest.

The price of crude oil, natural gas and even gasoline at the pump have all fallen sharply since mid-summer, with the price of oil falling below $90 a barrel on Monday.

The spot price of natural gas is also much lower than it was in July, but home heating costs are based in part by the skyrocketing prices this summer, when utilities were building up inventories of natural gas for the winter heating season, the agency said."

Kyle's reply: Thanks. I had forgotten about pre-purchasing. What is left? Wood heat? :)

I remember Elmbrook discussing the increase in heating costs for this year at the July (?) meeting. Many institutions pre-purchase their own energy supplies too. Some schools are able to switch to oil during peak use to save money on their utility bills. Central used to be able to do that; East still had dual fuel? I don't know if the new heating systems will be dual fuel at Pilgrim, Central and East. (Institutions can get a reduced natural gas rate if they are willing to switch to oil during the really cold weather.)

Many people this summer pre-purchased gasoline believing it would only go higher. I wonder how they are feeling now? Futures markets are always risky.

Bottom line is, OPEC is not about to let prices fall much lower. They will just cut back on their production to keep prices up. That is why I strongly believe we need to increase our own domestic production of oil and natural gas.  

 

October 7, 2008 8:58 AM

winegirl   

I was also watching the futures market news this morning, and I saw December 2009 oil prices are equal to the near term futures prices. I am not an expert in futures, but this tells me that the professionals don't see the prices coming down at all over the next year and that buying at today's prices seems like a bargain. I expect the utility companies will try to lock in reasonable prices for future resale but no price breaks will come about next year. Only thing individuals can do is reduce consumption as much as possible: wear your woolies, turn off the heat and any appliances that are not absolutely needed, stay off the roads.

More income spent on utility costs will be less available for discretionary spending. And we have to remember that local government won't be "cutting back."

Kyle's reply: Gasoline prices are at least coming down right now. That will help a little to offset the higher utility costs.

You said it, government does not back be it the local school board (oh joy, looking forward to those years of paying off the referendum), city, state, or nation.

Since I am always cold, this is an important issue for me. I found that wool is a wonderful fiber for keeping warm--much superior to synthetics. I am also fond of my heating pad that I use as a foot warmer and my tiny space heater that I use for very localized heating. These items allow me to keep the temp. down on the thermostat and yet stay comfortable. 

October 7, 2008 10:43 AM

Larry Knetzger   

Hi Kyle, purchasing natural gas is done by the utilities on the futures market, its a commodity. On staff at the utilities are traders that do nothing but trade futures on natural gas. It is gambling but it is the way commodities are sold and bought. At the time these futures were bought Oil was at its highest. Tough decision for Utilities, but of course they don't loose a nickel, just pass the cost onto the consumer. Kind of a job like a weather forecaster,  right or wrong you still are employed for your next prediction. Life in the fast lane.

October 7, 2008 10:50 AM

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